What is Art's-Way Manufacturing Co Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Art's-Way Manufacturing Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Art's-Way Manufacturing Co (Art's-Way Manufacturing Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5556 Highway 9, P.O. Box 288, Armstrong, IA, USA, 50514
Art's-Way Manufacturing Co Inc is a manufacturer of agricultural equipment. It has three reportable segments: Agricultural Products, Modular Buildings, and Tools. The Agricultural Products segment fabricates and sells farming products as well as related equipment and replacement parts for these products in the United States and worldwide. Its Modular Buildings segment manufactures and installs modular buildings for animal containment and various laboratory uses. The Tools segment manufactures steel cutting tools and inserts. It derives revenues from the Agricultural Products segment.
Executives
| Randall C. Ramsey |
director |
5556 HIGHWAY 9, ARMSTRONG IA 50514 |
| Matthew Westendorf |
director |
C/O ART'S-WAY MANUFACTURING CO. INC., 5556 HIGHWAY 9, ARMSTRONG IA 50514 |
| David Alan King |
officer: Executive Vice President |
C/O ART'S-WAY MANUFACTURING CO. INC., 5556 HIGHWAY 9, ARMSTRONG IA 50514 |
| Mcconnell J Ward Jr |
director, 10 percent owner |
|
| Michael William Woods |
officer: Controller |
C/O ART'S WAY MANUFACTURING CO., INC., 5556 HIGHWAY 9, ARMSTRONG IA 50514 |
| Marc H Mcconnell |
director |
1118 N QUEEN ST, KINSTON NC 28501 |
| David Allan White |
director |
C/O 5556 HIGHWAY 8, ARMSTRONG IA 50514 |
| Carrie L. Gunnerson |
officer: President and CEO |
5556 HIGHWAY 9, ARMSTRONG IA 50514 |
| Joseph R Dancy |
director |
1007 BEAVER CREEK, DUNCANVILLE TX 75137 |
| Michael Furness |
officer: Director of Finance |
5556 HIGHWAY 9, ARMSTRONG IA 50514 |
| David R Castle |
director |
P.O. BOX 1738, LAKEFIELD A6 K0L 2H0 |
| Dean James Droegemueller |
officer: Director of Finance |
5825 VINCENT AVENUE SOUTH, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55410 |
| Fred William Krahmer |
director |
204 LAKE AVENUE, SUITE 201, FAIRMONT MN 56031 |
| Thomas E Buffamante |
director |
6863 WOODLAND DRIVE NORTH, GREAT VALLEY NY 14741 |
| Douglas Richard Mcclellan |
director |
|
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